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Analysis of the Risk of Rubber Prices Using the ARCH-GARCH and VaR Methods on Farm Income in West Aceh District

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@article{IJASEIT13637,
   author = {Mustafa Usman and M. Yuzan Wardhana and Mauwaddah Istiqamah},
   title = {Analysis of the Risk of Rubber Prices Using the ARCH-GARCH and VaR Methods on Farm Income in West Aceh District},
   journal = {International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology},
   volume = {12},
   number = {3},
   year = {2022},
   pages = {1018--1022},
   keywords = {Price risk; rubber; farm income; ARCH-GARCH; VaR.},
   abstract = {The fluctuating price of rubber is often detrimental to farmers because farmers generally cannot manage the timing of the sale to get a profitable selling price. High price fluctuations provide opportunities for traders to manipulate price information on farmers and cause farmers not to enjoy the higher true price. This research aims to see how risky the price is received by rubber farmers and its effect on farm income in West Aceh District. This study uses the ARCH-GARCH method and VaR calculations for price risk analysis and Simple Linear Analysis to analyze the effect of price on farm income. The results showed that the price risk received by rubber farmers was high, namely 41.699% during the one-year sales period. The regression results show that the price significantly affects the income of rubber farming in West Aceh Regency with a probability of 0.000. The value of R2 is 0.935, which means that rubber prices influence 93% of rubber farming income, and variables outside the model influence 7%. The selling price of rubber influences the income of rubber farming. If the price of rubber is low, the farmers cannot afford to pay for rubber maintenance, thus disrupting rubber productivity. Decreased productivity will reduce farm income in the West Aceh Regency, which means that the price of rubber influences 93% of rubber farming income, and 7% is influenced by variables outside the model.},
   issn = {2088-5334},
   publisher = {INSIGHT - Indonesian Society for Knowledge and Human Development},
   url = {http://ijaseit.insightsociety.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9&Itemid=1&article_id=13637},
   doi = {10.18517/ijaseit.12.3.13637}
}

EndNote

%A Usman, Mustafa
%A Wardhana, M. Yuzan
%A Istiqamah, Mauwaddah
%D 2022
%T Analysis of the Risk of Rubber Prices Using the ARCH-GARCH and VaR Methods on Farm Income in West Aceh District
%B 2022
%9 Price risk; rubber; farm income; ARCH-GARCH; VaR.
%! Analysis of the Risk of Rubber Prices Using the ARCH-GARCH and VaR Methods on Farm Income in West Aceh District
%K Price risk; rubber; farm income; ARCH-GARCH; VaR.
%X The fluctuating price of rubber is often detrimental to farmers because farmers generally cannot manage the timing of the sale to get a profitable selling price. High price fluctuations provide opportunities for traders to manipulate price information on farmers and cause farmers not to enjoy the higher true price. This research aims to see how risky the price is received by rubber farmers and its effect on farm income in West Aceh District. This study uses the ARCH-GARCH method and VaR calculations for price risk analysis and Simple Linear Analysis to analyze the effect of price on farm income. The results showed that the price risk received by rubber farmers was high, namely 41.699% during the one-year sales period. The regression results show that the price significantly affects the income of rubber farming in West Aceh Regency with a probability of 0.000. The value of R2 is 0.935, which means that rubber prices influence 93% of rubber farming income, and variables outside the model influence 7%. The selling price of rubber influences the income of rubber farming. If the price of rubber is low, the farmers cannot afford to pay for rubber maintenance, thus disrupting rubber productivity. Decreased productivity will reduce farm income in the West Aceh Regency, which means that the price of rubber influences 93% of rubber farming income, and 7% is influenced by variables outside the model.
%U http://ijaseit.insightsociety.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9&Itemid=1&article_id=13637
%R doi:10.18517/ijaseit.12.3.13637
%J International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology
%V 12
%N 3
%@ 2088-5334

IEEE

Mustafa Usman,M. Yuzan Wardhana and Mauwaddah Istiqamah,"Analysis of the Risk of Rubber Prices Using the ARCH-GARCH and VaR Methods on Farm Income in West Aceh District," International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 1018-1022, 2022. [Online]. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.18517/ijaseit.12.3.13637.

RefMan/ProCite (RIS)

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Usman, Mustafa
AU  - Wardhana, M. Yuzan
AU  - Istiqamah, Mauwaddah
PY  - 2022
TI  - Analysis of the Risk of Rubber Prices Using the ARCH-GARCH and VaR Methods on Farm Income in West Aceh District
JF  - International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology; Vol. 12 (2022) No. 3
Y2  - 2022
SP  - 1018
EP  - 1022
SN  - 2088-5334
PB  - INSIGHT - Indonesian Society for Knowledge and Human Development
KW  - Price risk; rubber; farm income; ARCH-GARCH; VaR.
N2  - The fluctuating price of rubber is often detrimental to farmers because farmers generally cannot manage the timing of the sale to get a profitable selling price. High price fluctuations provide opportunities for traders to manipulate price information on farmers and cause farmers not to enjoy the higher true price. This research aims to see how risky the price is received by rubber farmers and its effect on farm income in West Aceh District. This study uses the ARCH-GARCH method and VaR calculations for price risk analysis and Simple Linear Analysis to analyze the effect of price on farm income. The results showed that the price risk received by rubber farmers was high, namely 41.699% during the one-year sales period. The regression results show that the price significantly affects the income of rubber farming in West Aceh Regency with a probability of 0.000. The value of R2 is 0.935, which means that rubber prices influence 93% of rubber farming income, and variables outside the model influence 7%. The selling price of rubber influences the income of rubber farming. If the price of rubber is low, the farmers cannot afford to pay for rubber maintenance, thus disrupting rubber productivity. Decreased productivity will reduce farm income in the West Aceh Regency, which means that the price of rubber influences 93% of rubber farming income, and 7% is influenced by variables outside the model.
UR  - http://ijaseit.insightsociety.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9&Itemid=1&article_id=13637
DO  - 10.18517/ijaseit.12.3.13637

RefWorks

RT Journal Article
ID 13637
A1 Usman, Mustafa
A1 Wardhana, M. Yuzan
A1 Istiqamah, Mauwaddah
T1 Analysis of the Risk of Rubber Prices Using the ARCH-GARCH and VaR Methods on Farm Income in West Aceh District
JF International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology
VO 12
IS 3
YR 2022
SP 1018
OP 1022
SN 2088-5334
PB INSIGHT - Indonesian Society for Knowledge and Human Development
K1 Price risk; rubber; farm income; ARCH-GARCH; VaR.
AB The fluctuating price of rubber is often detrimental to farmers because farmers generally cannot manage the timing of the sale to get a profitable selling price. High price fluctuations provide opportunities for traders to manipulate price information on farmers and cause farmers not to enjoy the higher true price. This research aims to see how risky the price is received by rubber farmers and its effect on farm income in West Aceh District. This study uses the ARCH-GARCH method and VaR calculations for price risk analysis and Simple Linear Analysis to analyze the effect of price on farm income. The results showed that the price risk received by rubber farmers was high, namely 41.699% during the one-year sales period. The regression results show that the price significantly affects the income of rubber farming in West Aceh Regency with a probability of 0.000. The value of R2 is 0.935, which means that rubber prices influence 93% of rubber farming income, and variables outside the model influence 7%. The selling price of rubber influences the income of rubber farming. If the price of rubber is low, the farmers cannot afford to pay for rubber maintenance, thus disrupting rubber productivity. Decreased productivity will reduce farm income in the West Aceh Regency, which means that the price of rubber influences 93% of rubber farming income, and 7% is influenced by variables outside the model.
LK http://ijaseit.insightsociety.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9&Itemid=1&article_id=13637
DO  - 10.18517/ijaseit.12.3.13637