International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology, Vol. 10 (2020) No. 5, pages: 1970-1978, DOI:10.18517/ijaseit.10.5.10389

Wind Energy Feasibility Study of Seven Potential Locations in Indonesia

- Ismail, Asrul Harun Ismail, Gama Harta Nugraha Nur Rahayu

Abstract

This study evaluated seven potential locations for wind energy in Indonesia. This study applied economic analysis using static analysis and the Monte Carlo simulation. The later was used to measure the financial indicators and then to analyze the sensitivity of economic uncertainties. The result findings show that in term of annual energy production volume among the seven selected locations, Jeneponto location has the highest value of 4,339,003.2 MWh with a capacity factor of 25.22% and Bantul location has the lowest value of 526,476 MWh with a capacity factor of 16.51%. According to economic uncertainty analysis, the highest NPV and attractive IRR values with high deviation standard values will be interesting to the risk-taking investors. Otherwise, the lowest NPV and IRR values fit the risk of avoiding-type investors due to its low deviation standard values. Based on sensitivity analysis, the increase of average NPV and IRR values of all seven locations are influenced positively by first 5-year of the selling price, which contributes approximately 30% and 50% of NPV and IRR’s percentage change. By contrast, the decrease in average NPV values of all seven locations is influenced by the discount rate, which contributes approximately 15% of NPV’s percentage change. Meanwhile, the decrease in average IRR is influenced by capital investment cost, which contributes approximately 20% of IRR’s percentage change. Policymakers can further consider the parameters mentioned above.

Keywords:

annual energy production; capacity factor; Monte Carlo simulation; economic uncertainties; wind energy

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