International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology, Vol. 12 (2022) No. 3, pages: 994-1000, DOI:10.18517/ijaseit.12.3.14682

Dynamic Model of SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Drinking Water Consumption Impact at Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Ecuador

David Carrera-Villacrés, Camila Bahamonde-Coyago, Carlos Mancheno-Criollo, Robinson Mena-Castro, Josselyn Moreira-Pin, María Ordóñez-Ríos, Wilson Sailema-Hurtado


Since the beginning of the State of Emergency announced on March 17, 2020, caused by SARS-CoV-2 (COVID19), changes have been made due to the strict measures established on the Ecuadorian territory. Also directly affecting the educational field. Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE located in the Sangolquí, Ecuador, South América, is one of the many universities in the country that had to adapt to the orders of Secretaría Nacional de Educación Superior, Ciencia y Tecnología. (SENESCYT). This is due to the new situation that had to be faced, and it was indispensable to suspend academic and work activities. One of the consequences of this situation was the decrease in drinking water consumption in the Institution due to the absence of civil and administrative personnel. The objective of this research was to present the dynamic modeling of possible COVID-19 spread scenarios at the Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE - Headquarters and the impact it has caused on water consumption during January to July 2020, through official data obtained by the Institution, with the Vensim program. The reincorporation of 25% of the administrative and military personnel could be applied typically, without requiring other sources of supply; if 100% of the university population returned, there would be problems in the future with water resources.


COVID-19; drinking water consumption; dynamic model; scenarios.

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