DOI : https://doi.org/10.18517/ijaseit.9.2.7269

Automatic Cluster-oriented Seismicity Prediction Analysis of Earthquake Data Distribution in Indonesia

Ali Ridho Barakbah (1), Tri Harsono (2), Amang Sudarsono (3)
(1) Department of Information and Computer Engineering, Politeknik Elektronika Negeri Surabaya, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia
(2) Department of Information and Computer Engineering, Politeknik Elektronika Negeri Surabaya, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia
(3) Department of Electrical Engineering, Politeknik Elektronika Negeri Surabaya, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia
Fulltext View | Download
How to cite (IJASEIT) :
Barakbah, Ali Ridho, et al. “Automatic Cluster-Oriented Seismicity Prediction Analysis of Earthquake Data Distribution in Indonesia”. International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology, vol. 9, no. 2, Apr. 2019, pp. 587-93, doi:10.18517/ijaseit.9.2.7269.
Citation Format :
Many researchers have analyzed the earthquakes to predict the earthquake period occurrences. However, they commonly faced the difficulty to project the prediction into the region adjusted to the earthquake data distribution and to provide an interpretation of the prediction for the region. This paper presents a new system for cluster-oriented seismicity prediction analysis, and semantic interpretation of the prediction result projected to the region. The system applies our automatic clustering algorithm to detect some clusters automatically depending on the earthquake data distribution and create clusters of the earthquake data for the prediction. The semantic interpretation is presented in the system to provide easier information from the seismicity prediction analysis. The system consists of four main computational functions: (1) Data acquisition and pre-processing, (2) Automatic clustering of earthquake data distribution, (3) Seismicity prediction of earthquake time period occurrence based on cluster with confidence levels of seismic event using the Guttenberg-Richter law, and (4) Region-based seismicity prediction analysis and semantic interpretation of the prediction for each cluster. For experiments, we use earthquake data series provided by the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) in the year 1963-2015 with the location of Indonesia. We made a series of experiments for earthquakes in Nias (2005), Yogyakarta (2006), and Padang (2009), with respectively 6.3, 7.6 and 8.7 Richter magnitude level. Our system presented the seismicity prediction analysis from each earthquake cluster and provided an easy interpretation of the prediction probability.

Cincin Api Pasifik, Wikipedia Indonesia, https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cincin_Api_Pasifik accessed on July 8, 2015.

Gempa Bumi, Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika, www.bmkg.go.id/BMKG_Pusat/Gempabumi_Tsunami/Gempabumi.bmkg, accessed on July 8, 2015.

Mohammad Nur Shodiq, Ali Ridho Barakbah, Tri Harsono, "Spatial Analysis of Earthquake Distribution with Automatic Clustering for Prediction of Earthquake Seismicity in Indonesia," The Fourth Indonesian-Japanese Conference on Knowledge Creation and Intelligent Computing (KCIC) 2015, Surabaya/Bali, Indonesia, March 24-26, 2015.

R. Sadeghian, G.R. Jalali-Naini, "A New Probability Density Function in Earthquake Occurrences," Journal of Industrial Engineering International, Islamic Azad University, Vol. 4, No. 6, pp. 1-6, 2008.

Rusnardi Rahmat Putra, Junji Kiyono, "Seismic Hazard Analysis for Indonesia", Journal of Natural Disaster Science, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 59-70, 2012.

Das S., C. Henry, "Spatial Relation between Main Earthquake Slip and Its Aftershock Distribution," Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, 2003.

Masryur Irsyam, Donny T Dangkua, "Proposed Seismic Hazard Maps of Sumatra and Java Islands and Microzonation Study for Jakarta City, Indonesia," U.S Geological Survey USGS-MS966, 2008.

Fujiwara Hiroyuki, Sinichi Kawai, "National Seismic Hazard Maps of Japan," University of Tokyo, 2006.

Restu Faizah, Habib, Widodo, "Probabilitas Kejadian Gempabumi Pada Masa Mendatang Di Zona Sesar Sumatra", Seminar Nasional Statistika dalam Managemen Kebencanaan, Fakultas MIPA, UII Yogyakarta, 15 Juni 2013

Adel Moatti, Amin, Zafarani, "Pattern Recognition on Seismic Data for Earthquake Prediction Purpose", Proceedings of International Conference on Environment, Energy, Ecosystems and Development, Industrial Engineering Tarbiat Modares University Tehran, Iran, 2013.

Mohammad Nur Shodiq, Ali Ridho Barakbah, Tri Harsono, "Cluster Oriented Spatio Temporal Multidimensional Data Visualization of Earthquake in Indonesia", EMITTER International Journal of Engineering Technology, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 53-67, June 2015.

Mohammad Nur Shodiq, Dedy Hidayat Kusuma, Mirza Ghulam Rifqi, Ali Ridho Barakbah, Tri Harsono, "Spatial Analysis of Magnitude Distribution for Earthquake Prediction using Neural Network Based on Automatic Clustering in Indonesia", The International Electronics Symposium on Knowledge Creation and Intelligent Computing (IES-KCIC) 2017-IEEE co-sponsored conference, Surabaya, Indonesia, September 26-27, 2017.

Mohammad Nur Shodiq, Dedy Hidayat Kusuma, Mirza Ghulam Rifqi, Ali Ridho Barakbah, Tri Harsono, "Neural Network for Earthquake Prediction Based on Automatic Clustering in Indonesia," International Journal on Informatics Visualization, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2018.

NECDC. ANSS Catalog Search. Accessed on 20 December 2015.

Ali Ridho Barakbah, Kohei Arai, "Identifying moving variance to make automatic clustering for normal data set," IECI Japan Workshop 2004 (IJW 2004), Musashi Institute of Technology, Tokyo, May 22, 2004.

Ali Ridho Barakbah, Kohei Arai, "Determining constraints of moving variance to find global optimum and make automatic clustering," Proc. Industrial Electronics Seminar (IES) 2004, pp.409-413, Surabaya, Indonesia, October 12, 2004.

Ali Ridho Barakbah, Kohei Arai, "Reversed pattern of moving variance for accelerating automatic clustering," EEPIS journal, pp.15-21, Vol. 9, No. 2, December 2004.

Bambang Sunardi, "Analisa Fraktal dan Rasio Slip Daerah Bali-NTB Berdasarkan Pemetaan Variasi Parameter Tektonik", Jurnal meteorologi dan Geofisika, Vol. 10, No.1, 2009.

Ahmad Zamani, Reza M. Sorbi, "Application of neural network and ANFIS model for earthquake occurrence in Iran," Earth Sci Inform. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2013.

E. Florido, F. Martí­nez-ílvarez, A. Morales-Esteban, J. Reyes, J.L. Aznarte-Mellado, "Detecting precursory patterns to enhance earthquake prediction in Chile ", Computers and Geosciences, 2014.

Supriyanto Rohadi, "Studi Variasi Spatial Seismisitas Zona Subduksi Jawa", Jurnal Meteorologi Dan Geofisika, Vol. 8 No.1, Juli 2007.

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

    1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
    2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
    3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).